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September 21, 2001

Where Will It End?

Q: With all that has happened to the stock markets in the past week, what is your prediction for the Dow and the Nasdaq indexes? And what investments are safest for times like this?

A: As we've said, we were in a bear market before September 11th, and we are still in a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average could fall to as low as 5000, and the Nasdaq could fall to 800 before the bear market ends.

Short-term US Treasuries are the safest holding you can own. They are the "quality" people are referring to when they talk about a "flight to quality". Treasuries are backed by the "full faith and credit" of the US Treasury. And, as an added benefit, they also support the US government in its efforts to protect American citizens and interests both at home and abroad.

Looking back at this past trading week, you may think that the market will be straight down from here. You may want to jump in and short stocks by the boatload. But it is very important to know what you're doing before attempting this investment strategy. And, you may end up feeling like all of those investors who bought Amazon or CMGI at its peak! Proceed with caution, or, better yet, with some professional guidance.


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