Daily News & Commentary    Login  help  contact us   New User Registration > Welcome > Daily News > E-Services > Subscribe   WEISS COMMENTS Recovery Hardly In Sight -- November 26, 2001 The National Bureau of Economic Research declared today that the US economy has been in a recession for the past eight months. But contrary to popular -- and the Bush Administration's -- belief, an economic recovery is nowhere in sight. In fact, the economy may be heading for more trouble in the months ahead. And that trouble is spelled DEFLATION. The first wave of deflation is already lapping at US shores. No one commenting on deflation today was alive during the last wave of deflation to hit America. They have no idea how it can turn the world inside out and upside down. Deflation wreaks havoc in any economy that is riddled with debt, as America's economy is today. And yet some people, completely misunderstanding its potential power, are actually celebrating its arrival. They are in for a rude awakening as deflation drives the value of all assets downward. At the same time, the world's economies are facing downturns: East Asian economies are shrinking in the second half of this year, led by Japan's deepening economic crisis. Mexico and Canada followed the United States into recession, and their woes have spread to Argentina and Brazil. Some economists say Germany's worsening performance -- its economy slipped into reverse in the third quarter -- will drag most of Europe into negative territory. "One by one, every major country is tipping into a rare and possibly lethal recession," said Stephen Roach, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, who has been predicting a worldwide slump since early in the year. "It is far-reaching and deep ..." And it is driven by an unstoppable force -- worldwide deflation. Huge, overwhelming debts! World deflation seeping into the American economy! World economies sinking in unison! Are these the ingredients of an economic recovery? No, of course not. Cleary, the Bush Administration is whistling in the dark when it predicts a quick recovery. Even Herbert Hoover's forecasts of "a recovery around the corner" in the early days of America's greatest depression seem to have more basis in reality. related article: Recession Under Way, May Be Short-Lived   printer-friendly format Archive of Daily Commentary: select a past article from the box below. Previous Headlines Inflationary Pressures Abound in GDP Report Markets tumble! Janus settles improper trading allegations Housing's last hurrah? A Proactive or Reactive Fed Markets still volatile! REITs take a beating from higher interest rates Consumers Are Losing Confidence Will Inflation Spin Out-of-Control? Consumer Credit Rises Again Higher Interest Rate Concerns Send Market Tumbling Dollar Outpaces Euro — For Now, At Least Good News And Bad News Commodity Price Spike Spurs Inflation Risk Construction Spending Falls in February And Still Climbing? A Time To Be Careful One Month Does Not A Trend Make Adding More Truth to Earnings Mortgage Applications Tumble Latest chain store sales hurt by ... Money Chasing Money Are higher interest rates coming sooner rather than later? The Unemployment Puzzle Producers are getting squeezed Gas Prices Hit All-Time High Top Surveys Show Doubt What Really Drives Stocks? Oil Shock Taxes the Economy Housing starts tumble ... again Fed Stimulus Fading A "Buffett" of Sage Advice Consumer Confidence Disappoints Wall Street Reacts to Terror ... Consumer Credit Skyrockets In January Storm Clouds Are Churning Over Consumer Spending A Train Wreck In The Making Jobs Numbers Stink Surging Gas Prices Slam Consumers Manufacturing Dips in February Employment Situation Still Critical Black Gold, Texas Tea Energy Prices Could Be The Straw They Call 'Em Durable Goods For a Reason Existing Home Sales Fall Consumer Confidence Tumble Surprises Fed Chairman: Market Cheerleader Dark clouds forming? Wanted: Help Wanted Ads Housing Starts Tumble In January U.S. Dollar Continues To Tumble Proceed with Caution Consumers Disappoint Jobless Claims Jump Mortgage activity falls for third straight week Is this a forecast for India? G-7 Statement Hurts Dollar Where are the jobs? Out of Benefits and Out of Luck Construction Spending Showing Weakness Layoff announcements soar in January! Healthy Momentum, But Still Waiting For Jobs Deficit Estimates Grow by the Day Fed Fires First Shot Across the Market's Bow Markets Tumble Despite No Change In Interest Rates Widening Long-Term Deficit An Economic Drag Throwing Caution To The Wind The Crowd Has Gone Wild When Bigger Isn't Better Chain store sales fall for the third week Positive earnings reports fail to take the market higher After This Bounce, The Dollar Will Resume Its Slide Consumers Are Ecstatic — For Now Sales Just Aren't Living Up To Expectations Wholesalers Are Getting Squeezed SEC says mutual-fund antics a "common problem" Benign Neglect for Dollar Employment Numbers Greatly Disappoint Holiday Retail Sales Disappoint Some Major Names Holiday spending could mean even more debt for consumers Factory Orders Drop And Layoffs Continue Gold Prices Soar **********December 2003 Commentary********* Consumer Confidence Takes A Hit In December And The Walls Come Crumbling Down ... Two Events That Could Shake Stock Market Complacency Holiday Sales Boom Just Around Corner, Isn't It? It's Not Nirvana Yet Here Comes Santa Claus Dollar Daze Latest Economic News Has A Darker Side Calpers Lawsuit Another Black Eye For Wall Street Poor Price Action Relative To The News Trade Gap Widens Even More Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head Mortgage activity tumbles Fed may leave Wall Street wondering ... Market eyes the Fed -- Maybe it should ... Jobs Data is Disappointing Retail's Holiday Start Not So Hot Services Index Tumbles Holiday Shopping Season Starts With A Sputter A Falling Dollar Could Spell Trouble Ahead **********November 2003 Commentary********* Consumer Confidence Still Has A Long Way To Go Fastest GDP Growth Since 1984 Is Bound To Fizzle Data, Dollar Will Disappoint Wal-Mart's Toy Strategy Could Impact All Retailers Trade Wars: The Phantom Menace Pressure Is Building On Prices As The Greenback Slides The Growth Story Still Not A Certainty Higher Interest Rates Are On The Way The Woes of the Consumer Fundamental Weakness Plagues The Markets Job Situation Still Ugly Some Reasons To Remain Cautious Symptoms and Cures Rate hikes are starting overseas -- is the U.S. next? Mutual Fund Probe Widens Layoff Announcements Up 125% in October Is China's Bubble About To Pop? **********October 2003 Commentary********* The Tax Rebate Checks Have Been Spent, Now What? Don't Start The Party Just Yet Consumer Confidence Still Very Low Dismal Chain Store Sales Fly Under Fed News Radar Worry About The Economy, Not The Fed Keep Your Eye On The Mutual Fund Scandal International Tumble Bursts Equity Bubble US Stocks Get Pounded Treasury Secretary's Job Outlook is a Snow Job What's Really Going On Here? Weaker Dollar Won't Cure What Ails US Economy Where's the Beef? Mortgage Activity Sours The Higher the Deficit Soars ... Bear Market Rally -- One Year Later U.S. Stocks End Flat for Day, Up for Week Derivatives Debacle Future Mortgage Activity Is Gloomy Washington's Weak-Dollar Wish is Coming True Three Concerns About The Stock Market The Unemployment Picture Isn't Rosy Yet Layoffs Still Coming Fast and Furious Immune to Bad News **********September 2003 Commentary********* Axe Falls On Consumer Confidence Can the market live up to such high expectations? Sentiment Sinks Is the business spending rebound faltering? OPEC's Move Fans Inflation Fears Chain Store Sales Take a Tumble G-7 To Manage The Dollar Lower: It's A Dangerous Game Greenback's Weakness Poses Threat to US Economy Someone Needs to Take Away Uncle Sam's Credit Cards Where's the Growth? Don't Buy Into the Hiring Hype A Little Déjà Vu Should Concern You Retail Sales Disappoint The Job Problem Is the Stock Market Priced to Perfection or Precipice? Federal Govt. Debt Leads The Way Higher Picking An Economic Fight With China Is A Risky Move Chronic Labor Weakness Shows Cracks In Economy Late-Summer Shopping Spree Is A One-Trick Pony Mutual Funds Sacrifice Investors for Quick Profits Bad Consumer Credit Situation Will Only ... **********August 2003 Commentary********* Consumers Put On The Brakes Mortgage Applications Fall To 14 Month Low The Out-of-Control Budget Deficit Threatens ... Financial Stocks Could Jeopardize The Rally Dollar's Rise Could Derail Stock Market Rally All That Hot Air Is Re-Inflating The Bubble Leading Indicator Of Housing Activity Plunges Consumers Weary of Keeping the Economy Afloat Earnings Expectations Are Highly Inflated ... Economy Remains Sluggish, Despite Today's Data Global Economic Slump Continues Mortgage Applications Drop To Lowest Level ... Fed Holds Rate Steady, Amid Deflation Concern All Eyes On The Fed More Trouble for Freddie Mac July Sales Strong ... But ... Housing's Last Gasp Layoffs Drag On Economic Recovery Strong June Factory Orders But No Trend In Sight Employment Data Spell Trouble **********July 2003 Commentary********* New Layoffs Still Pouring In Outlook For Housing Continues To Deteriorate Consumer Confidence Plummets Bankruptcy Concerns Continue Home Prices Are Falling Mortgage Rates Keep Climbing Growing Cracks In The Housing Market Clear As Mud Bad Day All Around Interest Rates Headed Higher; Economy Will Suffer Layoffs Continue To Dog The Economy Corporate Earnings Hijinks Are Alive And Well! Surprise, Surprise The Momentum Market Huge Trade Gap Points to Sagging Economy The Next Energy Crisis Consumers Are Piling On The Debt! Earnings Kick-off On Wrong Foot Second Half Recovery Is Wishful Thinking Rising Unemployment Points to Economic Pain Construction Spending Plunges Factories Cite Rising Natural Gas Prices **********June 2003 Commentary********* A Good Quarter For Stocks -- But The Economy ... Data Still Indicate Lethargic Economy Why Rising Energy Prices Are ... Durable Goods Tumble Confidence Numbers Show Consumers Going AWOL! Profit Taking Or Something More? Stock Rally Masks Economic Woes Record Deficit a Nightmare for the Dollar Technology Is Still Dead In The Water Job Outlook Meager At Best ... Born-Again Bulls Reality Intrudes on Euphoria Sales Data Confirm Economy Still Weak Latest Cost Savings Move Is Short-Sighted Dow Defies Gravity Reality Check for Investors Employment Report Shows Economy Still in Trouble Warning Signs of a Rally to Nowhere Increasing Productivity Is A Double-Edged Sword Why Cut Rates When Things Are So Good? Manufacturing Still Contracting **********May 2003 Commentary********* Economy Remains Weak, Despite Stock Rally Budget Deficit Cover-Up Durable Goods Fall Apart Rally Won't Last The Dollar is Headed Down, Down, Down Another Week, Another Flurry Of Pink Slips Economic Outlook Remains Bleak Pension Fund Managers Fight Back Deflation Fears Panic International Investors Deflation's Nasty Curse Bankruptcies Skyrocket! Insiders Know How To Play This Rally: SELL! Dow Tumbles As Terror Fears Rise Safe Money Subscribers Well Positioned Stocks Are on A Zigzag Path Down Mounting Job Losses Signal Double-Dip Recession! More Punishment Is In Store For Wall Street Big-Wigs! FED Sees More Weakness Dead Ahead! Services, Jobs Report Shows Underlying Weakness Economy Remains Weak Second Wave of Economic Woe Slams US *********April 2003 Commentary******** Employment Costs Are Skyrocketing! Perma-Bulls Keep Buying -- But ... Consumers Pile On Debt Lackluster GDP Shakes Market Where's the Post-War Rebound for Jobs? Slowing Refis Means Less Spending Money More Wall Street Corruption No Sign of Recovery Accounting Issues Still A Concern Employment Picture Gets Uglier Real Estate Bubble Still Inflating Production Grinds To A Halt Not a Good Sign for Retailers Investors Are Right To Be Skeptical CEO Pessimism Grows; Recovery Chances Lowered Wake Up And Smell The Rotting Earnings ... Investors Wake from War Daze "War Relief" Rally Falters IMF: 40% Chance Housing Boom Will Bust Economy At A Standstill Yet Another False Rally Manufacturing Disaster Brewing *********March 2003 Commentary******** Manufacturing Sector Slumps Bankruptcy Avalanche Is Not Over Yet This Is Only The Beginning More Bad News for the Economy Consumer Confidence Plunging Prior To War Roadblock for Street's Bandwagon "Shock & Awe" Blinding Investors Battered Cos. May Not Survive Ready for the Rebound? Housing Market Set To Collapse Swift War Won't Cure Economy Confidence Crumbles Party's Over Shareholders Fight Back Cutting It Too Close? American Airlines -- Next In Line For Bankruptcy? Economy Loses 308,000 Jobs In February Pension Costs Still Loom Is The Fed Starting To Worry? Job Situation Is Grim Manufacturing Sector Slows  Return to Today's Commentary Copyright © 2002 SafeMoneyReport.com All Rights Reserved privacy policy & cookies :: terms of use